What Summer Slowdown?

Theresa May has gone on another walking holiday, and the rest of Westminster has left for the summer break. But that hasn’t stopped the war of words from Cabinet members about the type of Brexit the Government is aiming to secure. Will it be hard, soft, or somewhere in between? How long will the transition period be? And, did the UK arrive at the negotiating table unprepared?

The Government has said they will publish position papers this month on key topics, but Brexit has certainly created a cloud of uncertainty.

Last month, mallowstreet noticed that a lot of search terms and discussions were centred around risk and volatility. So, we put the following question to the community – ‘What is the probability of a recession in the UK in the next 12 months?’ 46% thought there was a 25-50% chance, with all other respondents rating the probability as greater than this – no-one rated the chance at any less than 25%.

It is no wonder then that the top search terms in July focused on fixed income and equities (two of the staple asset classes for pension funds) as well as currency hedging and derivatives.

Top 10 Search Terms: July 2017

  1. Property
  2. Fixed Income Live Debate
  3. European Pensions
  4. Accounting
  5. Active Management
  6. Charities
  7. Currency Hedging
  8. Derivatives
  9. Equities
  10. Governance

Later this month, Central Bankers from around the world will gather at their annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Markets will be looking for any indications on the space and scale of tapering of central bank QE programmes, as well as any hints at the speed at which global interest rates may rise.

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